Strategic analyst who nailed the recent top of the S&P 500 says it takes three things to get to the bottom of the market

Cautiousness is needed after the end of the S&P 500 in the bear market and a possible rise of the Fed by 75 basis points just one day away. Earnings for futures and a possible recovery are rapidly weakening.

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who can count on some wins after scoring this year due to a grim share, told customers on Sunday that the S&P was “heading for 3,400 before reaching a more traded low”.

“With growth now the main risk for equities, our focus remains on names that can make a profit in a very difficult environment for many companies to navigate,” Wilson said. “We continue to like the classic winners of the last round – defense and energy – and companies with high operational efficiency.”

Plus: Everything you wanted to know about a bear market, but you were afraid to ask

Also in the camp of forecast calls is Kobeissi Letter Editor-in-Chief Adam Kobeissi. In a June 6 newsletter (published in this column) he warned fans that 4,090 would mean a “battle level” for the S&P 500, and the failure was a clear move towards 4,050.

It had a stop loss at 4,160, which marked the exact peak for the index before the big pullback started.

Sharing his last thoughts with ours call of the dayKobeissi returns with a warning for a more medium-term decline and no stock bottom until we see some classic signs:

“At a high level, we have not yet seen a real VIX VIX,
-2.65%
peak even panic sales have not been created for a year. “In general, we do not see bear markets at the bottom without panic sales, similar to those seen in 2001 and 2020,” he told MarketWatch on Monday. “Historically speaking, no bear market has reached the bottom without a VIX 45 sign or more.”

And possibly, even a day off on the S&P 500 would help build a base, he adds.

In the short term, it sees some moderate signs of an oversold market trading below the Bollinger Band of 3,846 per day, with the daily RSI approaching 30.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, assesses whether an asset is over-sold or over-purchased, with sub-30 indicating the former. The Bollinger Band is a momentum indicator that also measures these conditions, along with market volatility.

Kobeissi expects pressure on the S&P 500 until the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, when the “news market” action may initially raise stocks, but the fundamental “loss-loss” figures will force the sale of any rips. Thus, a relief at 3,860 or even 3,950 is possible before “more weak long-term traps are trapped and we head lower to 3,500”.

Indeed, the Fed is in a tight spot, he says.

“If the Fed raises interest rates aggressively, then markets fall because of fears of a recession, and if the Fed recedes from its aggressive tone, then markets fall into inflation concerns,” Kobeissi said, adding that the central bank ” will remain a pedal to the metal this week. and for the rest of this year, as they have no choice. ”

The hum

The Bank of America’s monthly fund management survey just released has some interesting facts, as more investors than ever before since the Great Depression expect inflation to fall next year.

BofA Global Fund Manager Research

Read also: See how big investors reacted to stagnant inflation, even before the latest gruesome inflation measurement

Elon Musk plans to address Twitter TWTR directly,
-5.00%
employees this week, for the first time since the Tesla TSLA,
-7.10%
The CEO started the acquisition of the company with 44 billion dollars.

Coinbase COIN,
-11.41%
was going to extend the slide on Tuesday, after a JP Morgan analyst abandoned his upward call in the wake of the “extreme fall” in cryptocurrency prices.

Continental Resources CLR share,
-8.50%
increases when the oil and gas exploration team received a proposal to become private from Harold Ham.

Oracle stock ORCL,
-4.60%
climbs after the results showed that the shift of the technology company’s activities to the cloud is paying off.

In a note on IT hardware, Deutsche Bank lowered its price target for the Apple AAPL with a market rating,
-3.83%
to $ 175 from $ 200, also limiting Hewlett Packard Enteprises HPE,
-3.72%
and NetApp NTAP,
-3.50%
targets. HPE was cut and NetApp was upgraded for purchase.

Nokia shares NOK,
-2.77%
rose after Citi asked Finnish telecommunications equipment maker to buy from neutral and raised the price target to 6.50 euros from 6 euros. Analysts said the markets were unaware of the fundamentals improvement for the group.

In addition to the start of the two-day Fed meeting, a small business survey showed that confidence had eroded in May.

Edward Thorpe, an investment and mathematical magician who spotted Bernie Madoff early on, has a brand new concern.

The markets

Future fulfillment contracts ES00 shares,
+ 0.69%

YM00,
+ 0.51%

NQ00,
+ 1.04%
is moderately higher after a much stronger bounce earlier, as the bond yields TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.321%

TMUBMUSD02Y,
3.284%
relaxation, and the DXY dollar,
-0.10%
flattens. Oil prices CL.1,
+ 1.17%

BRN00,
+ 1.25%
is moderately higher and gold slips. Bitcoin BTCUSD,
-4.82%
is over $ 22,000 after falling just under $ 21,000.

Random readings

These were the items with the top searches on MarketWatch from 6 a.m. Eastern:

Heart

Security name

TSLA,
-7.10%

Tesla

GME,
-8.40%

GameStop

AMC,
-7.64%

AMC Entertainment

ΝΙΟ,
-11.85%

ΝΙΟ

RDBX,
+ 15.68%

Redbox Entertainment

AAPL,
-3.83%

apple

AMZN,
-5.45%

Amazon

IMPP,
-10.77%

Imperial Petroleum

MULN,
-7.89%

Mullen Automotive

DAD,
-10.31%

Alibaba

Random readings

Marilyn Monroe’s iconic “Happy Birthday” dress is obviously worse to wear after Kim Kardashian took it for a spin at the Met gala.

Do not try it anywhere. Youtuber was criticized for camping on the edge of a cliff.

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